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Writer's pictureAashi Sharma
Sep 88 min read

A Drowning Pacific and the UN Chief's Concerns

“The Pacific is the region of fearless seafarers, expert fishers, and deep ancestral knowledge of the ocean, but humanity is treating the sea like a sewer,” says the UN Chief Antonio Guterres, while addressing the commencement of the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. 


The 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting was hosted by Tonga and chaired by the Prime Minister of Tonga, Hon. Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi Sovaleni from 26-30 August 2024. The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meet annually to develop collective responses to regional issues and deliver on their vision for a resilient Pacific Region. Tonga’s vision for this year revolves around moving beyond policy deliberation to implementation. 


António Guterres
(Image: António Guterres / X)

In his introductory speech, the UN Chief placed special emphasis on the need to keep the climate crisis from wreaking havoc over the small island nations. Emphasis was placed on plastic pollution threatening sea life and aggravating greenhouse emissions causing global temperatures and sea levels to rise. These increasing climate challenges are brewing the perfect recipe for a “worldwide catastrophe.”


Global Reports


Guterres’ comments followed two reports published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Climate Action Team, warning of worsening sea levels on 26th August 2024. The World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 report details how sea level rise in the region is above the global average. 


The UN Climate Action Team’s Surging Seas in a Warming World report came in as an extension to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2021 report which emphasised the highest rise in global mean sea levels in the last 3000 years. The former has said that future sea-level rise could be much larger and occur sooner than previously anticipated.


Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga, which is this year’s convenor of the Pacific Island Forum’s annual meeting, has been a victim of rising sea levels, as suggested by the Climate Action Team Report. According to the technical brief, the city witnessed a 21-centimetre rise in sea level between 1990 and 2020, amounting to more than twice the global average.


Moreover, the report projected an increase in the number of flooding days per year on average, for Tonga and its neighbour Samoa. The number is said to rise to 35 days per year during the 2050s. As a projection of the “worst year” of flooding, the estimates are said to increase to 70 and 90 days per year for Nuku’alofa and Apia, the capital of Samoa, respectively. 


Small Island Developing States (SIDS), in the Pacific, which are home to over 70 million people combined, have begun experiencing a loss of human life, settlement and livelihood. In the Solomon Islands, 50% of homes have already been lost, along with individual islands, to Sea Level Rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. 


This further validated the UN Chief’s comment on the Pacific being “the most vulnerable area of the world” in its exposure to climate change, while speaking to the BBC.


However, in its Global Risks Report 2024, the World Economic Forum stresses that coastal communities across the world could be at risk of monthly flooding by 2050 particularly in Bangladesh, China, India, and The Netherlands. 


Hence, as remarked by the UN Secretary-General, it holds true that soon enough these “surging sea levels are coming for us all.” This has necessitated the latest climate SOS issued by Guterres calling on countries to “Save our Seas.”


The Pacific’s Climate Vulnerability


Sea-level rise is, essentially, melting ice in the Antarctic causing an expansion of seawater as it warms. However, over the years, increasing temperatures and driving sea levels, are likely to worsen natural disasters and set off climate extremes. 


The January 2022 tsunami in Tonga is testimony to that. "Tsunami surge and storm surge sit on top of sea level, leading to widespread devastation no matter the intensity of the tide," said Benjamin Horton, Chief of the Earth Observatory of Singapore. 


The WMO’s recent report brought into focus ‘hydrometeorological hazard events’ in the south-west Pacific which led to more than 200 deaths and affected more than 25 million people. 


Part of the reason is also that 90% of people in the Pacific islands live within 5km of the coast and about 50% of the infrastructure is located within 500 metres of the sea. As a result, the threat to life, property, and settlement is exacerbated.


Furthermore, the State of the Climate in the Southwest Pacific Report 2022 highlighted the economic loss emerging as a result of these cash-strapped economies in the Southwest Pacific. Economic damage due to flooding and the wreckage caused due to tropical cyclones went up to US$8.5 billion, which has increased to US$9 billion, according to the 2023 data. 


If the global temperature goes above 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this century, Pacific islands “can expect at least 15 cm of additional sea-level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places,” as remarked by Guterres in his address. 


Alongside the humanitarian impact of the climate crisis, rising sea temperatures and ocean levels have taken a toll on the marine life of the Pacific. According to the UN Climate Action Team’s Surging Seas in a Warming World report, SLR is said to destroy the natural coastal defences and ecosystem of the sea, aggravating the climate impact. 


Mangroves, corals, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows currently protect hundreds of millions of people worldwide against storm surges and waves. Until 2100, a 1-metre loss in coral reef height is projected to more than double the global area flooded.  


In addition to this, potential risks associated with changes occurring in ocean circulation, temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation will have a definite impact on fish and other aquatic animals. Dwindling fish stocks are directly linked to the livelihood of many. 


“The Small Island Developing States are increasingly vulnerable to these changes, as their incomes are highly linked to fisheries, aquaculture and tourism,” said WMO’s former Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.


Disaster Mitigation


While being aware of the growing risk of weather extremes and climate disasters, Tonga amongst other countries has been vocal towards mobilising a voice for climate-vulnerable nations. 


In an official statement by Tonga at the Conference of Parties (COP-26) meeting in Glasgow in 2021, it emphasised how global warming beyond the 1.5℃ threshold would mean absolute catastrophe for Tonga and other Pacific Islands that are subsumed by the sea. 


Tonga, like others, had been at the bearing end of the crisis for far too long, pushing it to devise a full-fledged climate policy targeting “A resilient Tonga by 2035.” The country has aimed to achieve this by incorporating an inclusive, participatory approach that is based on good governance, community support, and a strong sustainable pathway.

  

Launched in 2017, the Tonga Climate Change Trust Fund is the Pacific’s first and only existing national fund. It provides supplementary financial support to both pipeline and current adaptation and mitigation efforts. The Fund consists of two elements: an endowment account with 80% of the initial capital (USD 4 million) invested in low-risk financial instruments, and an operational account for financing solar electrification projects and coastal protection measures.


In 2022, Vanuatu was insistent on getting the International Court of Justice to issue a legal statement or an advisory opinion on climate change. In pursuance of this, more than a dozen Pacific countries including Australia and New Zealand extended their support towards this initiative at the 51st Pacific Islands Forum meeting hosted by Fiji.


The Commission of Small Island States (COSIS), formed on the eve of COP26 to develop international law on climate change, aims to be the first to bring a case to the U.N. International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to help determine the obligations of countries under international law and hold polluters accountable. 


In the action plan deliberated upon at the Pacific Islands Forum meeting, the Pacific Resilience Facility took birth. The “Pacific-owned and led financial institution,” will assist vulnerable socio-economic groups of Pacific countries who are exposed to the effects of climate change to recover financially and learn community preparedness. The programme is set to begin operations in 2025 with a target funding of US$1.5 billion but is facing a severe shortfall due to a lack of international donors, as per the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific’s (UNESCAP) policy brief on PRF.


This plea for global action towards climate change and taking the plight of the Pacific Island Nations in cognizance is desperate. At a local level, lives are sacrificed regularly. "While we are resilient and trying to adapt, it only takes a few extra metres of water to cover a house, to kill a child or family," said Shairana Ali, CEO of the international charity Save the Children, in neighbouring Fiji.


Moving Forward


The Pacific is the most vulnerable yet most resilient region of the world. Despite a meagre contribution of 0.03% to global carbon emissions, they are committed to achieving net zero by 2050 and 100% renewable energy by 2030. This is manifest in the leaders' determination to preserve their lands, resources, and identity. 


The effect of climate change is not uniform throughout, which makes it all the more important for the international community to “step up and lead, by phasing out the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately,” as said by the UN Secretary-General. The surging seas may be coming for us all but they have already come for a portion of the world which needs an immediate and global response. 




Edited by Veda Rodewald


Aashi Sharma (she/her) is a student of law at the Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab and a writer at Political Pandora.


 

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